Dive Brief:

• Retail sales are on track to miss the 3.7% growth predicted by the National Retail Federation, thanks to late-season discounts, the NRF says.

• The hit comes as stores are busy; traffic is up, but many retailers have generous price-matching policies and have extended their Black Friday discounts and other promotions. Warm weather, especially in the Northeast, plus patience on the part of shoppers are leading to the price slashes, and not many reasons to spend beyond gifts, according to The International Council of Shopping Centers.

• The phenomenon is especially true when it comes to hard-to-move apparel; J.C. Penney and Macy’s, for example, have more or less have kept their Black Friday clothing discounts, according to Market Track. Other retailers reduced their prices again after ending their Black Friday sales prices. Discounts sway 57% of American adults in holiday spending decisions, and, overall, some 37% of U.S. adults believe that deals, promotions, and discounts will be better than those found thus far—younger consumers ages 18-24 (52%) even more so.

Dive Insight:

“Super Saturday” this year feels like something of a last chance for retailers—the last weekend before Christmas and therefore the last best chance for shoppers to hit stores in earnest or to buy online for on-time delivery. 

While “[f]ewer dollars are coming in than expected, that doesn’t mean consumers are shopping less. In fact, unit volume appears to be up,” writes NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “The issue is that prices are down. And that means the same number of sweaters, toys or electronic gadgets sold brings retailers less revenue.”

Shoppers simply are patient, the ICSC says. And with temperatures up in much of the country, they don't have much to buy for themselves beyond the gifts they need. In the week ending Dec. 12, for example, outerwear sales nationwide were significantly down: 36% in New York, 38% in Philadelphia, 34% in Chicago, 41% in Boston, 35% in Nashville, 35% in Atlanta, and 18% in Houston, according to weather planning and analytics firm Planalytics. The higher temps are leading to price cuts in outerwear and in other warmer clothing like sweaters, fleece, scarfs, and gloves. All that merchandise could see steep discounts in January, analysts are warning.

“We’ve seen an elongated season which has been very similar to 2014,” ICSC consumer and retail spokesperson Jesse Tron said in a statement. “Consumers still have a hefty portion of their shopping left to complete – on par with last year – but are significantly behind the 2013 rate of completion. We expect the last few days leading up to Christmas to be a flurry of shopping activity.”