Dive Brief:

• Retailers are cutting it close again this year with their guaranteed delivery for online orders, with Dec. 21 the most common cut-off day, according to customer analytics company StellaService. Last year, by contrast, the most common cut-off was Dec. 20.  

• Adding to the pressure is the fact that some 90% of retailers this year are offering some way to get free shipping, up 15% from last year, according to consulting firm Kurt Salmon. That could lead to more retailers footing the bill for expedited shipping.

• The move to accommodate procrastinating online shoppers comes as UPS and FedEx are already reporting problems getting packages delivered as e-commerce surges.

Dive Insight:

Retailers that allow last-minute e-commerce orders, which have added to the delivery misses of the last couple of years, take a risk when it comes to delivering on time — and in some cases they’re also paying dearly for those promises.

Fast, tracked, and low-cost or free shipping has become a major consumer expectation. Retailers were somewhat desperate to boost sales over the past two holiday shopping seasons, slashing prices and offering overnight and two-day shipping very close to Christmas. But many of those packages didn’t make it in time, leaving customers miffed. 

Last year, FedEx CEO Fred Smith defended the company’s 2013 holiday shipping record, saying that retailers were at least partly to blame for shipping delays. Retailers desperate to make sales over the shortened holiday shopping period that year, which also saw severe weather, over-promised on shipping and in some cases helped cause delays with poorly labeled and poorly packed packages, he said. 

UPS, which was even more affected by holiday shipping snafus, and FedEx have unveiled changes to improve performance, but they may not be able to do much about late orders. A study from consulting firm Kurt Salmon has found that order-to-delivery this year is already 20% slower than last year.