Dive Brief:

• The economy has gained enough momentum to foster retail gains of 4.1% this year over last, according to the National Retail Federation. Its 2015 economic forecast doesn’t include auto sales, gas stations, or restaurants.

• That growth would be the biggest since 2011’s 5.1% increase, according to the NRF.

• The group also released a January retail sales boost of .2% (also excluding those same categories) and a 3.7% year over year increase, and confirmed a holiday sales increase of 4%.

Dive Insight:

The National Retail Federation sees great hope for retail in 2015, thanks to more solid-than-ever economic indicators. It sounds like the group is more or less declaring last year’s “retail funk” over, but not without some caveats. 

“The economy appears to finally have gained some real traction and after a somewhat turbulent 2014, we expect to see continued gains in economic activity in the year ahead,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz.

“While Americans are benefiting from a pickup in wages and jobs and gains in the U.S. stock market, economic slack has been reduced," Kleinhenz said. "We still, however, have a ways to go in order to achieve sustainable economic growth. There are a few wild cards that the retailers will need to keep an eye on, like global economic growth, energy prices and even inflation.”