Dive Brief:

• Stock market volatility and economic weaknesses in the U.S. and overseas are chilling consumer optimism, according to a new CNBC All-America Economic Survey conducted Oct. 1-4.

• Nearly a quarter of Americans (23%) say the economy is “good” or “excellent,” 42% say it’s “fair,” and a third say it’s “poor.” That last is up three points since the last survey in June. The percentage of Americans who think the economy will worsen rose six points to 32%, the highest level since 2013’s government shutdown. Many fewer — 22% — say the economy will improve, two points down since June and the lowest level since the 2008 recession.

• And a survey from Bankrate similarly found that more than 60% of Americans are limiting their spending each month. That study found that 28% of Americans cite stagnant income for the move; 25% say they must save more, 18% are more generally worried about the economy, and 10% say they already have too much debt. Millennials are more than twice as likely as people of other ages to say they’re limiting spending because they need to save.

Dive Insight:

Looking at these two reports, the number of Americans who think things will get worse is most worrying, at least for retailers just as the holidays loom.

There are several fundamentals in the U.S. economy that are strong or strengthening, including a vastly improved employment picture. But that employment scenario also includes a stubborn wage gap and income stagnation for middle and lower earners. 

Global economic weaknesses and stock market volatility, plus, more recently, turmoil in the U.S. House of Representatives which includes the possibility of a government shutdown, are also helping dampen Americans’ economic optimism.

Bankrate similarly found that Americans are in much better shape financially compared to their low points from the economic downturn, but that wage stagnation and current-day worries are dinging confidence and willingness to spend.

One bright spot from CBNC: 40% of respondents said they believe their wages will rise in the next year, slightly more than in June. On average, Americans expect a 4% gain in wages, down by a half point but relatively robust.

That doesn’t do much for holiday budgets this year, however. That could put pressure on retailers to offer discounts to help ease Americans' concerns, according to Bankrate's report. 

“Just as retailers haven’t seen a windfall from consumers’ savings on gasoline prices, the ability of Americans to splurge on holiday shopping will be capped due to stagnant incomes and the tenuous status of savings," Bankrate​ chief financial analyst Greg McBride wrote in an email to Retail Dive. "Expect another year of low, single-digit growth in holiday spending.”