Podcast
Welcome to The Backroom, a window into what goes on behind the scenes as the Retail Dive team covers the stories and trends reshaping retail. You can check out all our podcast episodes (past and present) here and listen on Apple Podcasts, iHeartRadio and Spotify.
The K-shaped graph — where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer — is a well-accepted snapshot of the U.S. economy. But it fails to explain how discretionary spending has remained fairly robust despite inflation and other pressures on the consumer.
This resilience led the National Retail Federation this month to forecast 4.4% growth in retail sales for the year, outpacing most other estimates, though the group has said it may need to revise that in light of rising oil prices that could interfere with consumption.
On this month’s episode, Katie Thomas, who leads the Kearney Consumer Institute, talks about her recent discovery of nuances in the K-shaped framing — and how they help explain how and why many consumers spend these days, how things have changed for many households over the years and what could be in store in light of fresh challenges in 2026.
Resource links:
- NRF forecasts 4.4% retail sales growth this year despite rising uncertainty
- The fractured, fragile US consumer
- The US consumer is hitting a rough patch
- Wealthy consumers are heading to dollar stores
Editor’s note: This episode was produced and edited by Caroline Jansen.
