Nike delays $50B revenue target

Dive Brief:

At Nike's investor day on Wednesday, executives detailed plans to accelerate its next phase of "long-term, sustainable and profitable growth," with an expectation to drive high-single digit revenue growth that would expand margins and mid-teens earnings-per-share growth on average over the next five years, according to a company press release.
At the meeting, CEO Mark Parker did not address his now-infamous 2015 forecast that Nike would achieve $50 billion in revenue by 2020. But, later in the day, he told CNBC’s Sara Eisen on the network’s "Closing Bell” program that, while the target remains in place, the company is giving itself a couple more years to attain it.
Nike’s Consumer Direct Offense strategy, announced in June, is focused on digital connections in 12 key cities and 10 countries and includes a new NikePlus membership with member-only first access to certain products and services, matched to individual preferences and buying patterns.

Dive Insight:

Nike’s revenue target remains ambitious, but Parker on Wednesday suggested the company will achieve it, albeit a bit behind schedule, if it sticks to its Consumer Direct Offense strategy. "We plan to achieve our $50 billion target within the next five years and what we laid out today was a high single digit revenue growth and mid-teens EPS target and we'll dissect that into all the various elements to give you more depth and detail on it," Parker told CNBC Wednesday.

The company unveiled five measures of success that will guide its investment approach over the next five years:

Using new innovation platforms to drive over 50% of revenue growth
Boosting revenue generated from digital platforms from 15% in fiscal year 2018 to more than 30%
Doubling speed-to-market as its reduces its product creation timeline by over 50%
Ensuring Nike is the No. 1 brand in its 12 key cities and 10 key countries
Applying its "Triple Double Strategy" to drive more full-price sales

The "Triple Double Strategy" focuses on three core areas: Innovation (more distinct platforms and faster scale); Speed (investments in end-to-end digital capabilities); and Direct: (doubling direct connections with consumers).

As Nike runs after these goals, it will likely continue to be buffeted by pricing pressure and market share challenges, because some of its largest platforms (like its basketball/Jordan and running lines) still either lack innovation or because consumers prefer styles from other brands, according to a note from Wedbush analyst Christopher Svezia emailed to Retail Dive.

"[I]n the near to medium term, we continue to feel that the brand and the NA market place will remain challenged and subject to disruption," he said. "Going forward, we look for less unfavorable trends in underlying demand, pricing integrity, and the NA market, which we argue can take several quarters to happen."

By geography, on average over the next five years, the company expects to grow North America sales in the mid-single digit range, Europe, Middle East & Africa in the mid-to-high single digit range, Greater China in the low to mid-teen range, and Asia Pacific & Latin America in the high single-digit to low double-digit range.

Nike on Wednesday said it expects to reinvest 3% to 4% of its revenue over the next five years through capital expenditures and expects the target range for Return on Invested Capital to average in the low 30% range.