Dive Brief:
-
With the help of a steadier economy and mobile growth, e-commerce is likely to rise 16% this holiday season (November and December), according to comScore’s holiday forecast released Tuesday.
-
ComScore expects online spending via computer for those months to rise 14% from last year to $53.2 billion. Last year’s year-over-year growth was 10%. M-commerce, meanwhile, could account for 13% of e-commerce for the holiday months, or $7.9 billion, rising 25% from last year.
-
The research firm also reported its Q3 e-commerce sales and noted that computer-based e-commerce rose 13% from last year to $53.9 billion, a bounce compared to a Q2 increase of 10%.
Dive Insight:
These e-commerce increases likely reflect how the lines between e-commerce and brick-and-mortar continue to blur. Perhaps more importantly is the report's decidedly optimistic forecast. It's more optimistic, in fact, than an earlier forecast from the National Retail Federation, which predicted e-commerce holiday growth of 11% and brick-and-mortar sales growth of 4%.
“Negative economic sentiment is at a five-year low, the stock market is near all-time highs, and inflation has been kept in check,” comScore executive chairman emeritus Gian Fulgoni said in a statement. “One negative is that real wages for many middle-class Americans have not grown and in fact may have declined slightly. That said, the recent trends we've seen in online consumer spending suggest that American consumers are ready to open their wallets and embrace the spirit of giving this holiday season.”
Even if volume increases this year, that issue of stagnant wages could dampen sales somewhat by keeping price pressures on retailers.
