Dive Brief:

• E-commerce is the major force keeping retailers on their toes these days, but back-to-school shopping by and large remains a brick-and-mortar activity, with 83% of those purchases involving physical stores, including 7% that will be made online and picked up in-store, according to research from the International Council of Shopping Centers. Some 67% of consumers will spend more this year, compared to 50% who anticipated higher back-to-school spending last year, the study found.

• Still, smartphones and the web will still be key drivers of back-to-school shopping, according to the ICSC. Some 44% say they’ll use their phone to compare prices, 28% will use digital coupons, 26% will check ratings and reviews, 24% will check product availability, and 17% will email or text friends and family for an opinion about a possible purchase. Millennials are the most likely demographic to use their smartphones while shopping, according to the report.

• But the National Retail Federation says that, while the space has seen 42% growth over the past decade, consumers will more be more careful with their back-to-school spending this year. The average family with children in grades K-12 plans to spend $630.36 on electronics, apparel and other school needs, down from $669.28 last year, with total spending expected to reach $24.9 billion, according to the NRF’s Back-to-School Spending Survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.

Dive Insight:

These studies are showing widely disparate pictures of this year’s back-to-school shopper in America: the ICSC says a great majority of shoppers plan to spend more, while the National Retail Federation has detected far more caution.

And it’s not just caution. With the economy finally giving a little last year already, consumers splurged, according to the NRF, and so many children are less in need of certain items like electronics that don’t need replacing every year. The NRF found that 40.6% of those who say the economy affects their spending will look for sales more often, down from the 46.2% last year and the lowest since 2009 when the NRF first began tracking that. Similarly, 29.8% will buy more generic or store-brand products, down from 34% last year (and another survey low).

Kids are more likely to need new clothes because they grow, but research has found that parents are happy to wait for sales and the end of summer or beginning of fall for that. For those restocking what their children need for school, 92.7% will buy new clothes, spending an average $217.82 and another $117.56 on new shoes. Most (94.1%), though, will buy new school supplies, spending an average $97.74.

Last year, more than half (58.3%) of parents said they’d buy electronics for their school-age children, and planned to spend an average $212.35 — one of the highest amounts seen in the survey’s history. But that will decrease to $197.24 this year, the survey found.

These numbers, and retailers’ experience with this shopping event, show how volatile and hard-to-pin down back-to-school shopping is. There’s no date, not even as concrete as the increasingly amorphous “Black Friday” event. “Back-to-school” ads beginning appearing before school’s out in June, and continue after school starts in August or September. And many parents wait around till Halloween or even when Black Friday looms to purchase.

And the rough economy has taught families to think hard about what is really a necessity; the season is not just an excuse to spend.

“As seen over the last 13 years, spending on ‘back to school’ has consistently fluctuated based on children’s needs each year, and it’s unlikely most families would need to restock and replenish apparel, electronics and supplies every year,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said.