As you prepare your 2026 supply chain strategy, staying ahead of market trends and operational disruptions is more critical than ever. C.H. Robinson recently released our 2026 Freight Market Outlook, offering expert guidance for shaping strategies in the face of ongoing uncertainty, shifting trade policies and evolving customer expectations.
Looking at those macro trends, here are the top takeaways for retailers and their suppliers as you think about 2026:
1. Build flexibility into your transportation and sourcing strategies
After years of market volatility, freight rates across most transportation modes have stabilized, with only mild changes expected for 2026. Spot rates appear to have bottomed out, but mild increases are likely, especially in truckload and LTL. However, lingering inflation, labor pressures and regulatory shifts mean we can’t afford complacency. For retail, this means building flexibility into your sourcing and procurement strategies—diversifying suppliers, planning for rate cycles and ensuring contracts allow you to pivot as the market shifts.
Action: Blend Procurement Strategies – Use a mix of contract and spot market buying, aligning RFPs with rate cycles rather than fixed calendars. For more seasonal or variable needs, leverage market based KPIs for index-based pricing models.
2. Trade Policy Volatility: Monitor, Adapt and Diversify
Rapidly changing U.S. tariffs, especially those impacting imports from China, Southeast Asia and Mexico, continue to reshape global sourcing patterns. For retail supply chains, this underscores the need to closely monitor policy developments and be ready to shift sourcing to mitigate risk. With Mexico’s role as a nearshoring hub expanding and Canada’s importance in critical supply chains growing, global sourcing strategies continue to grow more complex. Agility in cross-border logistics and supplier relationships remain more important than ever. Invest in scenario planning and alternative routing to ensure
continuity—closely monitor policy developments, be ready to shift sourcing and proactively diversify your supplier network with evolving tariffs and border constraints.
Action: Reassess Inventory Models – Move toward regional distribution and cross-border diversification to buffer against disruptions and minimize carrying costs.
Map and Mitigate Risks – Proactively identify supply chain vulnerabilities, develop alternative routing and pre-negotiate contingency plans.
3. Evaluate your existing carrier base with operational cost pressures in mind
New regulations—ranging from stricter emissions standards to changes in commercial driver licensing—are likely to contribute to declining carrier supply and increasing operational costs. The ripple effects from these are likely to be felt across all transportation modes. As a retail shipper, manage your carrier relationships to minimize your risk: select partners who can adapt to regulatory changes, rationalize your carrier base and proactively plan for seasonal disruptions that may cause rate spikes.
Action: Stay Mode-Agnostic – Monitor truckload markets as a bellwether and remain ready to shift to intermodal, LTL, or air as cost and service dynamics evolve.
4. Resilience as a Competitive Advantage: Beyond Cost Cutting
In today’s freight environment, resilience has become a defining competitive advantage. Rather than focusing solely on cost-cutting, prioritize developing a supply chain that is agile, capable of adapting and recovering quickly and able to outperform competitors when faced with disruption. This means continuously optimizing your transportation mix—shifting between truckload, LTL, intermodal and air as needed to balance cost, service and speed. Building a strong carrier base is crucial; consolidating partnerships with select, reliable carriers enhances both efficiency and reliability. Automation plays a key role as well, with digitized processes for shipment tracking, tendering and exception management reducing manual workloads and boosting accuracy. Finally, harnessing data through
predictive analytics and digital twin modeling enables you to anticipate demand, strategically position inventory and test “what-if” scenarios, strengthening your network’s ability to respond to whatever challenges arise.
Action: Embrace Technology: Make AI-driven forecasting and end-to-end visibility the baseline for decision-making and execution speed. Partner with logistics providers who offer advanced digital and agentic supply chain solutions
Bottom line: In 2026, retail supply chain success will depend on balancing strategic procurement with opportunistic buying, actively optimizing your transportation mix and leveraging technology to anticipate and respond to disruption.
