Dive Brief:
- Walmart’s fourth quarter revenue rose 4% to $180.6 billion, beating the company’s expectations, the retailer said Thursday. Global e-commerce sales were up 16%, driven by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery and U.S. marketplace growth.
- Fourth quarter net sales rose 5% to $123.5 billion from $117.6 billion the prior year. Total U.S. comparable sales excluding fuel, rose 4.9% for Q4 and 4.7% on the year.
- Walmart posted full year revenue growth of 5.1% to $681 billion. Operating income rose 8.6% to $2.3 billion. In fiscal year 2026, Walmart expects to reach $674.5 billion in net sales, an increase ranging from 3% to 4%, with an adjusted operating income of $29.5 billion for the year.
Dive Insight:
Walmart delivered strong Q4 results, exceeding its sales profit and earnings expectations, but it issued a full year outlook below expectations, analysts from Jefferies and Wells Fargo said Thursday. But, the analysts noted, the conservative outlook was not surprising.
John David Rainey, chief financial officer at Walmart, acknowledged the company's cautious optimism, noting “that there are still uncertainties related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions."
The potential impact of tariffs on retailers and consumers is the latest emerging concern. Still, in the midst of those changes and challenges, Walmart's holiday quarter and full year earnings performance show its momentum and resilience. Walmart executives, and several analysts, believe its various offers to customers are capable of carrying the company through a tough economic environment.
There’s higher engagement across income brackets and Rainey said higher income households are accounting for a majority of share gains. “Our business has transformed over the past five years, and we're benefiting from the investments we've made in our core, omni retail business,” Rainey said during the earnings call. “Global e-commerce penetration is now 18% of sales, about 1100 basis points higher than it was in FY 20.”
“It is worth noting that since calendar year 2019, Walmart has grown its overall revenues by a whopping $157 billion,” Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, said in emailed comments. “In other words, Walmart's growth is significantly more than the entire annual sales line of Target. This underlines the extent to which Walmart has doubled down on its leading position in the US, and increasingly, international retail.”
Improvements in stores, a leading digital presence and a growing advertising business are further separating Walmart from its traditional brick-and-mortar rivals, Roth analysts said in a Thursday note. The retailer’s model is shifting toward a "more profitable, less volatile, wider-reaching ecosystem," the analysts said.
Walmart is positioned to successfully manage unpredictability that includes potential tariff headwind. The retailer could add about $25 billion in revenue in 2025, which would yield over $700 billion in annual company sales, David Silverman, senior director of Fitch Ratings, said in an emailed comment.
The retailer began this year with several major moves. They include buying a Pittsburgh-area shopping mall with plans for redevelopment, asking more corporate employees to return to in-person work and opening the doors at a newly built corporate headquarters campus in Arkansas.
“The outlook for Walmart remains solid,” Saunders said. “While some may be disappointed with the 3-4% sales growth guidance, we believe this is a solid forecast which continues to build on a very successful period of expansion.”
