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Each year comes with its own big bankruptcy stories, whether surprise filings or retailers that have been suffering for some time. 

A couple of those surfaced in the last few days of 2024. Just before Christmas, Party City filed for bankruptcy for the second time in less than two years, with plans to close all of its stores, and The Container Store entered Chapter 11 with a plan to be acquired by its term lenders. Those stories will continue to play out in 2025, but they were far from the only ones to seek out the courts last year.

Retail Dive tracked close to 20 notable bankruptcies in 2024, including repeat offenders like Rue 21 and relative newcomers like Foxtrot. Some, like Joann and 99 Cents Only, had been at risk for years. Among those that sought out bankruptcy protection were a host of well-known names, including Tupperware, Big Lots and Express.

That being said, the last couple of years have seen a spike of defaults and retail distress will likely decline in 2025, according to Moody’s Ratings Vice President of Corporate Finance Raya Sokolyanska. There are fewer retailers now with weak capital structures because they’ve already filed — and access to capital for at-risk borrowers has also improved.

“Nevertheless, pockets of risk remain, as discretionary retailers are under stress from increasingly purposeful and value-seeking consumer spending, particularly among lower income households,” Sokolyanska said via email. “Home goods, hobby and apparel retailers dominate the distressed retailer list. Home goods retailers continue to be hurt by low home sales, as well as weak demand for pandemic-era favored products. Hobby retailers, such as crafts, are similarly impacted by the consumer pivot to other categories such as experiences.”

Moody’s own distressed list currently features retailers including Joann, Saks Global, Guitar Center and At Home. Some of those same companies are of concern to S&P Global Ratings, according to Bea Chiem, retail and consumer managing director at the firm. Chiem noted on a call with Retail Dive that At Home, Guitar Center and Qurate were a few companies with concerning credit ratings and that continued economic softness could lead to more trouble in the sector.

“Even though we're not in a recession, we know that the consumer is stretched,” Chiem said. “They're still pulling back on discretionary purchases and prioritizing necessary items just given the level of inflation that we've seen. And so we do think that potentially there could be more negative rating actions heading into ’25 and there could be a risk of greater defaults next year.”

The impact of tariffs, which President-elect Donald Trump has indicated are coming, could also be a factor this year, as it will likely drive up prices and cause inflation to worsen, harming consumer wallets further. That, of course, will hurt retailers who import more products from abroad, Chiem said, and particularly discretionary categories.

More retailers will file for bankruptcy in the year ahead, the question is simply who they will be. While it’s impossible to predict with certainty which businesses will file in a given year, especially as unforeseen circumstances can tip a company over the edge, we have gathered a list based on CreditRiskMonitor’s FRISK and PAYCE scores, which measure the probability of a public or private retailer, respectively, filing for bankruptcy within 12 months.

In the public retail sphere, that organization listed 10 noteworthy retailers and brands with either a 4% to 10% chance of filing for bankruptcy or a 10% to 50% chance, based on their FRISK score. The FRISK score uses metrics like stock market capitalization and volatility, agency ratings, financial ratios and click patterns from credit managers to estimate a retailer’s probability of filing for bankruptcy within the next year.

Among them are Wayfair and Kirkland’s, both of which have suffered from a particularly weak home market the past few years, as well as household names like Office Depot, Children’s Place (once a leader in its own space) and QVC parent Qurate Retail Group.

In the private retail space, more than 30 noteworthy retailers are listed (and many more that we didn’t include here) with a bankruptcy chance of between 6.34% and 10.02% or 10.02% to 50% in the next 12 months. The PAYCE score is based on information including a business’ past payment behavior and its U.S. federal tax liens.

Among CreditRiskMonitor’s high-risk list is a whole host of once-buzzy startups, including Glossier, Everlane, Lunya and Untuckit. Several companies under what is now known as Saks Global made the list as well, including Neiman Marcus. Given the organizational changes currently underway, we only listed Hudson’s Bay Company, which was formerly the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue and others. Sparc Group, which operates a number of retail brands and just announced a merger with J.C. Penney, was left off for similar reasons, though it also registered as high risk.

Here’s a closer look at a few of the above retailers and what led them there.

Beyond

Beyond, the entity that formed when Overstock acquired Bed Bath & Beyond out of bankruptcy in 2023, has had a rough go of things since then. The company, which initially shut down its Overstock banner in favor of Bed Bath & Beyond, regretted that decision only a few months later, calling it “a fatal mistake,” and relaunched Overstock as a stand-alone site. Even prior to the acquisition, Overstock’s revenue was falling by double digits.

That trend continued into 2024, with Q3 revenue at the new company plummeting 17% in October at the same time that the retailer cut 20% of its workforce. Beyond’s latest major acquisition, Zulily, has also struggled with sales declines in recent years; in fact, both itself and former parent Qurate Retail Group are also currently on CreditRiskMonitor’s high bankruptcy risk list.

Another potential tie-up with The Container Store, which would have seen Beyond acquire a 40% stake in that business, was stymied by The Container Store’s inability to reach a deal with lenders. That retailer itself filed for bankruptcy in December. Even BuyBuy Baby, Bed Bath & Beyond’s former subsidiary that was bought out of bankruptcy by Dream on Me, reopened a number of stores before shuttering all of them in October and is now also at high risk of bankruptcy, per CreditRiskMonitor.

With a history of losses and an evolving C-suite, there’s a range of challenges that Beyond is facing, not least of all that each of its banners is struggling financially. The company is addressing its challenges through a strategy that includes tweaking its value proposition and working to build trust with customers.

Beyond Inc. has a FRISK score of 2 on CreditRiskMonitor, representing a roughly 4% to 10% chance of filing for bankruptcy in the next 12 months. Market cap has declined by about 75% over the past year, but timely trade payments are “cloaking” the company’s risk, per the organization.

Everlane

Everlane, which became well-known for its emphasis on ethical manufacturing and sustainable basics, has shown signs of strain in the past couple of years. Early in 2023, the company laid off nearly 9% of its employees in a restructuring aimed at rightsizing its teams. Then-CEO Andrea O’Donnell made clear at the time that part of the retailer’s challenges stemmed from profitability, with venture-backed companies (many of them DTC brands) suddenly expected to net a profit.

“My view has always been that layoffs are a last resort, so over the past year we focused on cutting other large costs and driving efficiency before taking this step,” O’Donnell said at the time. “While we continue to perform as a business and a brand, the inflationary environment and recessionary risk has created continued pressure.”

O’Donnell left the company about a year later, to take over as brands president at Designer Brands (which is also currently on CreditRiskMonitor’s high-risk list). Everlane’s latest chief executive just joined in October, with Pacsun veteran Alfred Chang taking on the position (Pacsun, likewise, has a high bankruptcy risk on CreditRiskMonitor). Chang most recently oversaw Fear of God, and Everlane praised his work there in streamlining operations and developing marketing and merchandising strategies.

Everlane has a PAYCE score of 1 on CreditRiskMonitor, which represents a roughly 10% to 50% chance of filing for bankruptcy in the next 12 months. According to that firm, Everlane carries higher-than-average balances and has been making some payments late.

Designer Brands

Designer Brands, which runs DSW, The Shoe Co and others, has built its strategy in recent years around acquiring a slate of footwear brands, including Keds, Topo Athletic and Hush Puppies. Nevertheless, sales have continued to slide, with decreases of 2.6% and 1.2% in its two most recent quarters. Net income in Q3, however, grew to $13 million.

CEO Doug Howe, who took over the top spot in April 2023, said in a statement that the quarter convinced executives that the business had “reached a turning point,” but at the same time noted that the company had a “difficult transition into the fall season,” which hit comparable sales.

The company in 2023 underwent layoffs as part of a broader cost-saving initiative and has seen turnover in key leadership roles in recent years, including naming a new brands president in January last year.

Designer Brands has a FRISK score of 2 on CreditRiskMonitor, representing a roughly 4% to 10% chance of filing for bankruptcy in the next 12 months. Market cap has fallen by 48% over the past year, liabilities are eight times larger than market cap and timely trade payments are masking the company’s risk, according to the firm.

Glossier

Buzzy beauty brand Glossier made its name on cult products like “boy brow” and a lot of millennial pink, but like many DTC brands, it ran into challenges further down the line. The highly Instagrammable brand faced a lot of the same issues others did during the pandemic, closing its two permanent stores at the time before reentering physical retail in 2021.

Since then, the beauty business has seen its share of growing pains, with founder Emily Weiss stepping out of the CEO role in 2022 and two rounds of layoffs hitting the company in a matter of months as it took a different approach to scale. One round came as the brand entered its first wholesale deal, while the other came just before Weiss’ departure, in which she admitted to making mistakes as the brand grew.

“Over the past two years, we prioritized certain strategic projects that distracted us from the laser-focus we needed to have on our core business: scaling our beauty brand,” Weiss wrote at the time. “We also got ahead of ourselves on hiring. These missteps are on me.”

Later years saw Glossier revamp its executive team, with new C-suite positions occupied in part by industry veterans, and a recent expansion of its partnership with the WNBA. The beauty brand maintains a store footprint of fewer than 15 stores.

Glossier has a PAYCE score of 1 on CreditRiskMonitor, which represents a roughly 10% to 50% chance of filing for bankruptcy in the next 12 months. Glossier has been making some payments late, according to CreditRiskMonitor.

Backcountry

Outdoor retailer Backcountry was acquired by CSC Generation Enterprise in September for an undisclosed amount, with plans to operate under its own brand name. The retailer’s CEO, Melanie Cox, at the time said the acquisition would help Backcountry expand its presence and accelerate its strategy.

But it’s been a tough couple of years for outdoor retailers more broadly. Layoffs hit a number of companies in the space in 2024, including REI (more than once), Patagonia and L.L. Bean. Specialty outdoors brand Orvis also laid off 8% of its workforce alongside plans to close some stores and shutter its catalog.

The outdoors space was one of the few that thrived during the pandemic, as more shoppers sought open air to avoid getting sick. Like the home space, however, consumers have since pulled back on some of their enthusiasm in the sector and shifted that spending elsewhere.

Backcountry has a PAYCE score of 2 on CreditRiskMonitor, assuming about a 6% to 10% chance of filing for bankruptcy in the next 12 months. Backcountry carries higher-than-average balances and has made some payments late, per CreditRiskMonitor.

Madison Reed

Hair color brand Madison Reed in 2019 had ambitious goals to open or sell 600 hair color bars by 2024 under a franchising model, but its website today lists closer to 100. The company, which sells products like hair color kits and hair masks, brought in a $52 million investment in 2021 and a $33 million investment the following year, both of which were aimed in part at store expansion.

Shortly after that, however, venture capital funds in much of retail dried up, making the operating landscape more challenging for DTC brands in particular, many of which relied on investments to grow. In the past two years, Madison Reed has continued to expand its distribution, including through a deal to sell at Walmart, and has also added to its C-suite and pursued new marketing channels.

Madison Reed has a PAYCE score of 1 on CreditRiskMonitor, which represents a roughly 10% to 50% chance of filing for bankruptcy in the next 12 months. The beauty brand has been making some payments late, according to CreditRiskMonitor.