Dive Brief:
- Nike, Lululemon and Ulta, among others, are emerging as early winners of the holiday season, according to a report from Earnest Research. Those retailers are among a handful seeing the most sales growth this year based on early holiday spending data (Nov. 1 to Nov. 16).
- Nike saw the highest spending growth year-over-year (18%) during that period, followed by Lululemon (17%), The RealReal (8%), Shein (7%), and Walmart and Ulta (both 6%). The biggest losers included Best Buy (down 20%), Kohl’s (-12%), Express (-11%), Wayfair (-10%) and Macy’s (-9%).
- By category, spending on active and athleisure grew the most year over year at 17%, followed by pet supplies (15%), and garden and outdoor (9%). By contrast, home fitness had the greatest decline at 23%, followed by electronics (-21%), and jewelry and watches (-13%).
Dive Insight:
While there have been some winners so far this season, overall spend growth decelerated from Nov. 1 to Nov. 16, according to Earnest Research. The 5% growth rate was “notably slower” than comparable periods in 2020 and 2021, per the report. Earnest Research pointed to a pullback in discretionary spending as one reason for slower growth, and noted that the slowdown in consumer spending accelerated in October despite early holiday deals.
“Consumers are spending more dollars at Nike, Lululemon, Ulta, Shein, The RealReal, and Walmart in the preliminary 2022 holiday shopping period, while reducing their spend elsewhere,” Earnest said in the report. “Preliminary holiday spending trends could be facing tough comps since consumers shopped historically early in 2021 due to inventory challenges and early promotions. However, so far signs point to a much more subdued holiday season than 2021.”
Still, early results from Black Friday and Cyber Monday were strong. Per Adobe Analytics data, shoppers spent $11.3 billion during Cyber Monday, up 5.8% from 2021. The growth was primarily driven by toys, electronics and computers, and toy sales alone spiked 684% in comparison to a typical October day, Adobe found. Meanwhile, online spending on Black Friday rose 2.3% year-over-year to $9.12 billion.
While Earnest Research found early holiday spending on electronics was down by double digits, shoppers worldwide favored the category on Black Friday, with sales up 19% in the electronics and accessories category, according to Salesforce data. Adobe also found that online sales of smart home and audio equipment on Black Friday spiked by more than 200% in comparison to a typical shopping day in October.
