Dive Brief:

• Morgan Stanley researchers expect to see the most disappointing Thanksgiving-to-Christmas retail sales since 2008 this year.
• Low shopper confidence, October's federal government shutdown and a shopping calendar that is six days shorter 2012's are among the factors considered in a new report.
• The forecast includes a 1.7% fourth-quarter sales increase at stores that have been open at least a year, much less than the 3.5% increase that such stores saw last year during the same period.

Dive Insight:

End-of-the-year retail predictions are not  not all doom and gloom this year. The National Retail Federation, for instance, expects to see holiday sales rise 3.9% to hit $602.1 billion. Still, it's a tough time for the recovering economy and consumers in general, and Morgan Stanley's skepticism reflects that atmosphere.