Dive Brief:
- U.S. retail sales between Black Friday and Cyber Monday are forecast to rise 5% year over year to $75 billion “for the first time ever,” according to a new Bain & Company report.
- About 8% of the U.S. retail sales during the holiday season will occur during the Black Friday to Cyber Monday period, the highest proportion on record for that timeframe, Bain said.
- Last year, consumers spent the most on Dec. 22, followed by Black Friday (Nov. 24) and Christmas Eve (Dec. 23), per Bain’s report.
Dive Insight:
Cyber Monday is no longer a dominant shopping day for U.S. consumers, according to Bain’s research. When analyzing the top recent holiday sales days, Cyber Monday hadn’t made the top 10 since 2019, when it ranked sixth in sales, according to the report. That’s in part due to a slowdown in e-commerce growth and deals extending beyond the main core weekend.
Though Cyber Monday is becoming less relevant than it has been in the past, the period of Black Friday to Cyber Monday shopping “remains pivotal,” Bain wrote in its report.
“Despite our slower growth forecasts for retailers this holiday season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend will likely be a bright spot, capturing its highest share of holiday spending in the last five years,” Aaron Cheris, partner in Bain and Company’s retail practice, said in a statement. “Black Friday is a prime opportunity for retailers to refine their promotion strategies, ensure adequate inventory, and perfect in-store experiences. The retailers who are ready to meet consumer demand this season and prioritize this key holiday shopping window will come out ahead.”
Last year shoppers spent $9.8 billion online on Black Friday, up 7.5% from the previous year, according to Adobe Analytics. U.S. retailers also saw a 9.6% jump in online sales on Cyber Monday to $12.4 billion, Adobe found.
Meanwhile, other reports project that consumers will spend more during this year’s holiday season, but the retail sales growth will decelerate compared to last year. Between November and January, Deloitte forecasts that sales will grow between 2.3% and 3.3%, driving between $1.58 trillion and $1.59 trillion in retail sales. This year’s growth rate is slightly down from last year’s when the firm predicted that sales would grow between 3.5% and 4.6%.
A recent PwC report projects that shoppers will spend a ‘record’ $1,638 each this holiday season, up 7% year over year and a 15% jump from 2022. However, nearly 30% of survey respondents said they plan to spend less this year than in 2023.
