Listen to the article 12 min

This audio is auto-generated. Please let us know if you have feedback.

Retail is entering the final weeks of the year and one thing is clear: It’s crunch time. 

While every year the holiday season can determine a retailer’s health, some companies need a strong finish to 2024. “Value” has become a touchstone word as many shoppers have seen discretionary funds tighten and retailers race to prove that consumers’ dollars are well spent at their stores. 

Some companies are more vulnerable to the highs and lows of the season than others. In particular, retailers that are more exposed during Q4 could face additional pressure on credit quality, according to S&P Global Ratings. Last year, Victoria’s Secret & Co, Signet Jewelers and Macy’s generated 65% or more of their annual operating income from holiday sales, per the report.

Those retailers that are exposed to discretionary spending are nearly 1.5 times as likely to face a downgrade within two years than those whose sales rely on nondiscretionary spending, according to S&P Global analysts led by Lauren Slade.

But the Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday time period has set a positive tone overall, with 197 million shoppers making purchases during those five days, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. It's the second highest number in the survey's history after last year's record of 200.4 million. Cyber Monday in particular hit it out of the park, with spending reaching over $13 billion for the day.

The long weekend "exceeded expectations in terms of the sheer volume of shoppers," NRF CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement.

Not every company on this list is struggling financially — some have had one tough quarter, recently changed leadership or have been dealing with the fallout of changing consumer shopping patterns. 

But, as the season races to a finish, here are five retailers that could really use a win:

1. Target

Target remains a powerhouse retailer. Yet, the company’s most recent earnings missed expectations and it lowered guidance, ultimately causing stock to fall 22% on the day of its Q3 announcement. Sales for the quarter were down nearly 1% year over year to $25.2 billion, net earnings tumbled 12.1% to $854 million and comparable sales were flat. 

“Target hasn’t found a formula that works in this macroeconomic environment,” Emarketer senior analyst Zak Stambor said regarding the quarter. “While it says it will have lowered prices on nearly 10,000 items by the end of the holiday season, that strategy isn’t enough to convince shoppers to spend.”

While other retailers may rely more heavily on Q4 to deliver the bulk of a year’s profit, Target still generated 32% of its annual operating income from holiday sales last year, according to S&P Global Ratings — which drives home the importance of performance over the next few weeks. 

But on Black Friday, Target had something that no other retailer did: Taylor Swift. Specifically, it had exclusive product offerings. 

The pop star’s “The Eras Tour Book” was available only at Target in the U.S. and sold nearly 1 million copies in its first week. The tome became the fastest-selling new release book of the year, and the second highest adult nonfiction release — behind Barack Obama’s “A Promised Land,” — since Circana began tracking the category. 

“There is a key difference, though,” Circana stated in a recent note regarding those top two books. “Taylor Swift's book was available through Target only, while Obama’s book was available from all major book retailers.” 

Target also had Swift’s “The Tortured Poets Department: The Anthology” for the first time on CD and vinyl. 

But what lies beyond a pop star potentially saving Christmas? Target knows it is entering into a season where consumers are looking for value. 

Consumers “are looking for promos and deals when they’re shopping for those everyday essentials,” Target CEO Brian Cornell said regarding the fourth quarter. “And they are shopping carefully and taking some of those savings to find those unique items in discretionary categories that they really want. We think that's going to continue.” 

2. Kohl’s

In 2024, Kohl’s tried a plethora of initiatives. The department store retailer:  

• Announced an exclusive licensing agreement with Babies R Us to bring shop-in-shops to 200 stores
• Brought Limited Too back to life after the tween-focused apparel brand took a 15-year hiatus
• Added a new assortment from Aéropostale and increased its Madden Girl offerings
• Expanded its dress selection with dedicated shops at 700 stores
• Launched a family-focused brand platform, dubbed “Where Families Come First”
• Increased its home goods assortment by 40%
• Partnered with Motherhood to offer maternity apparel from its brand
• Introduced its Return Drop service to stores nationwide
• Began offering same-day delivery through Instacart

All of this, and the retailer revealed that its partnership with Sephora is lucrative — Sephora at Kohl’s sales exceeded $1.4 billion in 2023. The company said it expects to surpass a previously projected goal of $2 billion in sales by 2025. 

Yet, Kohl’s is continuing to see sales fall despite its turnaround efforts. In its latest earnings, net sales fell 8.7% year over year to $3.5 billion, while comps were down 9.3%. Net income dropped a dramatic 62.7% to $22 million in the third quarter. The company lowered its guidance for the second time this year, wherein net sales are expected to fall between 7% and 8%, while comps are expected to decrease 6% to 7%. 

The department store also announced last month that CEO Tom Kingsbury will be leaving the company in mid-January. Ashley Buchanan, who is the chief executive of craft retailer Michaels, will take the top spot. 

On a recent call, Kingsbury stated that many of Kohl’s turnaround tactics have not worked, and some analysts have speculated that the company will soon announce store closures. 

“We think Kohl’s may have to look at its first largescale store closure program in 2025,” Evercore ISI analysts led by Michael Binetti said. 

3. The Container Store

While some retailers on this list could simply use a win, The Container Store has gone into Q4 on truly shaky ground. The company previously landed on Retail Dive’s bankruptcy watch list and has had a dramatic 2024. The Container Store has gone through layoffs, faced delisting and eventually approved a 1-for-15 reverse stock split. Then this fall the company adopted a poison pill after a single stockholder rapidly acquired a significant portion of the company’s stock.

By December, the New York Stock Exchange reached a decision to delist the company’s common stock. 

Meanwhile, Beyond Inc., parent company of Bed Bath & Beyond, Overstock, Zulily and other brands, announced it planned to invest $40 million in The Container Store. The strategic partnership would enable The Container Store to return to profitable comparable store growth by leveraging Beyond’s intellectual property, customer data and brand network. As part of the deal, The Container Store locations would feature Bed Bath & Beyond’s assortment for kitchen, bath and bedroom.

However, at the end of November, The Container Store warned in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it didn’t expect to be able to meet the agreed-upon financing conditions of the arrangement. If The Container Store can’t come to an agreement with its lenders by Jan. 31, either retailer could terminate the deal.

Beyond itself is going through a time of transition. The company this fall said that it had plans to lay off 20% of its workforce. The decision would result in a reduction of $20 million in annual fixed costs.

4. Under Armour

In 2024, Under Armour saw layoffs, C-suite changes and financial misses. 

In what was arguably one of the biggest retail leadership surprises of the year, after 13 months with the company, CEO Stephanie Linnartz abruptly stepped down from her role and founder Kevin Plank was named chief executive. Plank previously led Under Armour from 1996 through the end of 2019. 

At the time of his appointment, Plank returned to lead a company that had just reported that revenue declined 6% overall and 12% in North America, the retailer’s largest region.

Under Armour this year brought in former Adidas executives, including Eric Liedtke as its executive vice president of brand strategy, Franck Denglos as vice president of commercial for its Europe, the Middle East and Africa division and Yassine Saidi as chief product officer.

A number of months later, it paid $434 million to settle a lawsuit that claimed Plank and the company’s former CFO Chip Molloy misled investors. Under Armour admitted no wrongdoing, but agreed to separate the roles of CEO and chair of the board for at least three years.

In its latest quarter, the company reported that revenue was down 11% year over year to $1.4 billion and that North America revenue fell 13%.

Plank is currently implementing a turnaround strategy for the athletics retailer that includes repositioning the brand, introducing improved products and launching its “most significant” marketing effort to date. Going into the new year Plank also wants to earn back shelf space with the company’s retail partners.

“The world needs hope and that’s what we think Under Armour can be,” Plank said. 

5. Ulta

Following two consecutive quarters of lowering guidance, Ulta in December raised its outlook after reporting a 1.7% sales gain.

The beauty retailer in recent years wowed with its performance, and even ended 2022 by hitting over $10 billion in net sales. For this fiscal year, sales are now expected to land between $11.1 billion and $11.2 billion, while comps are forecast to fall 1% or stay flat. The company isn’t backsliding, but growth has recently slowed.

This holiday season so far, consumers are spending, according to CEO Dave Kimbell, but they are focused on value.

“I am encouraged by the improving trends we are seeing in the business and optimistic about our holiday plans,” Kimbell said on a recent call with analysts. “We believe the beauty category will remain resilient.”

Indeed, nearly 30% of U.S. shoppers plan to purchase beauty products as a gift this year, according to a report by Circana. Fragrance in particular is anticipated to have a strong showing, with Q4 traditionally accounting for over 40% of annual sales in both prestige and mass markets.

However, Ulta is part of an increasingly crowded market. Kimbell noted that there’s been over 1,000 new points of distribution in prestige beauty in recent years “and that has been a pressure,” he said. “Eighty percent of our stores have experienced at least one competitive opening, and more than half have had multiple competitive openings. And that continues to be a dynamic that’s going on in the marketplace.”